Every year, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship presents the Immigration Levels Plan, which outlines projected immigration targets for the upcoming three years.
This plan sets the permanent resident admission targets for 2025, along with preliminary goals for 2026 and 2027. Notably, for the first time, we are incorporating targets for temporary residents, aiming to encompass all newcomers and work towards lowering the volume of temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.
Formulation of the levels plan
In creating the Levels Plan, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) takes into account:
- immigration priorities and goals outlined in the Immigration Refugee and Protection Act
- economic and regional requirements
- international obligations and commitments
- processing capacity
- the ability to support, integrate, and retain newcomers
Throughout the year, IRCC collaborates with a wide range of stakeholders and partners, including provincial and territorial governments, to inform the plan. Additionally, IRCC conducts public opinion research through surveys and focus groups with newcomers, rural Canadians, Francophones outside Quebec, and Indigenous Peoples.
Targets for permanent residents
The permanent resident programs include various categories such as economic streams, family reunification, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian and compassionate admissions.
According to this year’s levels plan, permanent resident targets will be reduced starting in 2025, with projected decreases for the following two years. This strategy aims to pause population growth temporarily, promoting well-managed, sustainable development and long-term economic prosperity.
Key aspects of the plan include:
- A total reduction of 105,000 admissions in 2025 compared to earlier projections.
- A focus on prioritizing applicants already in Canada and creating pathways for them.
- Over 40% of anticipated admissions in 2025 will be from individuals who are currently temporary residents.
Research indicates that newcomers with in-Canada experience tend to achieve positive long-term outcomes. These individuals can contribute to the workforce and economy without placing additional strain on social services.
Adjustments will be made to economic immigration streams to prioritize the transition of existing workers to permanent residency and to respond to labour market needs. Programs like the Canadian Experience Class and regional immigration initiatives will emphasize attracting essential workers in sectors such as healthcare and trades.
The plan targets approximately 62% of total permanent resident admissions for the economic class, particularly in key sectors by 2027.
Family reunification continues to be a priority, with nearly 24% of overall admissions in 2025 allocated to family class immigration, including spouses, children, parents, and grandparents.
Additionally, Canada maintains its commitment to resettle the world’s most vulnerable populations, including human rights defenders, LGBTQI+ refugees, religious and ethnic minorities, and women and children in precarious situations.
Finally, the plan seeks to strengthen Francophone communities outside Quebec, with targets set at:
- 8.5% in 2025
- 9.5% in 2026
- 10% in 2027
These targets represent an increase from last year’s plan, allowing for continued growth in Francophone admissions outside Quebec, even amid the overall reduction in permanent resident levels.
Targets for Temporary Residents
In March 2024, Canada unveiled a strategy aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years, which includes both temporary foreign workers and international students. Beginning in 2025, Canada will establish specific targets for temporary residents, reflecting the influx of new workers and students entering the country:
- Student arrivals will adhere to the previously announced cap.
- Worker arrivals will be categorized under the International Mobility Program and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.
Due to the temporary resident reduction measures introduced in September of the previous year, Canada’s temporary population is expected to decline in the coming years, as significantly more temporary residents will either transition to permanent residency or leave the country compared to new arrivals. Specifically, the expected decline in Canada’s temporary population will be:
- 445,901 in 2025
- 445,662 in 2026
- A modest increase of 17,439 in 2027
The targets for temporary residents were determined by evaluating various factors, including the anticipated number of individuals expected to leave Canada from each program (such as upon permit expiration), those transitioning to permanent residency, approval rates for each program, estimated renewal rates, and additional considerations.
Certain categories are excluded from the temporary resident targets but are included in the overall count of temporary residents. These exclusions include:
- Work or study permit extensions or changes of status from within Canada, as these would lead to double counting of individuals.
- Seasonal workers who enter and exit Canada within the same year, since they do not contribute to the year-end population count.
- Asylum claimants seeking protection in Canada, as they are entitled to have their claims assessed and their volumes cannot be controlled in the same manner as other programs.
Strategies to Achieve the 5% Target
The IRCC has implemented several key measures, including:
- Annual Cap on International Student Permits: An annual limit has been set on study permits for international students, which includes a further 10% reduction in 2025 compared to the targets for 2024.
- Reform of the Post-Graduation Work Permit Program (PGWP): The IRCC has tightened the eligibility criteria for the PGWP to ensure better alignment with immigration objectives and the needs of the labor market.
- Temporary Foreign Worker Program Reform: Employment and Social Development Canada has introduced a 10% cap on the hiring of temporary foreign workers under the low-wage stream. Additionally, there will be a 20% increase in the starting hourly wage for those in the high-wage stream.
- Limiting Work Permits for Spouses of Temporary Residents: The IRCC is also tightening the eligibility for work permits for the spouses of international students and temporary foreign workers.
As with many nations, Canada is seeing an increase in asylum claims as the number of displaced individuals globally rises. This trend contributes to growing application volumes. To fulfill our humanitarian obligations, the government is implementing several initiatives aimed at addressing integrity concerns and enhancing the in-Canada asylum system. These measures include:
Asylum Measures
- Partial Visa Requirement for Mexican Nationals: A new partial visa requirement has been introduced for individuals from Mexico.
- Enhanced Claims Processing: The government is focused on improving the processing of asylum claims while ensuring the fairness and integrity of the system, as outlined in announcements made in 2024.
- Review of Visa Decision-Making: Efforts are being made to review the decision-making process for visas, equipping our highly trained officers with the necessary tools to identify fraudulent applications and minimize the number of non-genuine visitors.
Effects of the Plan
The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan is projected to lead to a slight population decrease of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, followed by a rebound to a growth rate of 0.8% in 2027.
Additionally, the plan aims to close the housing supply gap by approximately 670,000 units by the end of 2027.
It is also expected to support strong GDP growth, facilitating an acceleration in GDP per capita from 2025 to 2027, while enhancing housing affordability and contributing to a reduction in the unemployment rate.
